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[quote][i]Originally posted by Steve[/i] [quote]Future population Growth If net migration continues at current levels the UK will become ever more crowded. Projections of future population growth have to make assumptions about net migration, birth rates and mortality but, in the UK, net migration at recent levels is by far the largest driver of population growth. The total fertility rate (TFR) is often used to represent the ‘birth rate’ of a population. It is the average number of children that the average woman would have if the fertility patterns of any given year were to continue over her reproductive years. In the last forty years TFR has remained fairly stable, between 1.7 and 1.9. Today the TFR is around 1.83. A TFR of 2.1 is required to replace the population in the long run. The UK population is ageing as the birth rate has fallen since the last century and as life expectancy increases. This means that the ratio of people of working age to people over retirement age is declining (assuming that the working age remains as taken to be 16-64). Some claim that, as a result, more working age migrants are needed to fund the cost of caring for people in their old age. While immigration can moderate population ageing in the short term, the effect is not strong and migration cannot offer a solution to population ageing since, obviously, migrants also grow old. They would need to be replaced by an ever increasing flow of immigrants to have any major effect on the age structure of the UK. The result would be a substantial and continuing increase of the population, potentially without end. In mid 2015, the UK population was estimated at around 65 million and net migration had averaged 242,000 over the previous ten years (see here). The Office for National Statistics produces projections at different levels of net migration. This allows for an estimate of the impact of future migration on population growth. If net migration were reduced to zero (that is, the number of people entering and leaving the country were the same) the population would rise gradually to 67.7million in twenty-five years before gradually declining from the middle of the century. In contrast, under the principal projection from the ONS with net migration at 185K, the population is expected to increase by a total of 9.7 million over the next twenty-five years, passing the 70 million mark sometime in 2026 (see here). If net migration continues at around recent levels, then the population is projected to rise by 2.5 million over the next five years and to reach 73 million in the next 15 years. This is the ONS ‘high’ migration scenario of 265K per year. This increase of 8 million people is the equivalent of adding the combined population of Greater Manchester and the cities of Birmingham, Glasgow, Liverpool, Leicester, Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford, Nottingham, Portsmouth and Bristol. [/quote] [/quote]
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