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Author Covid-19 - The Impact to the economy and our way of life
SetH
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17th Apr 20 at 20:00   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Discussion on the non-medical aspects of Covid-19

Let's discuss the impact on the economy and how this crisis may change the way we live.
SetH
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17th Apr 20 at 20:10   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

That 22 Million unemployed figure in the USA, absolutely disastrous, literally unthinkable previously by any measure.

Not sure on the latest figures for the UK, was it 3 Million claims for universal credit?

As those that follow me on insta will know I have spent the last 18 months training as a commercial pilot with Easyjet, with some disruption due to problems with my medical. I have had to give that up for now as there is literally zero chance of the Airlines taking on Cadets anytime within the next 4-5 years. This was the case after 9/11 and 2009 and it's expected to be much worse, we already had a few thousand pilots out of work before covid (flybe and thomas cook). The class ahead of me training in New Zealand have had their contracts voided, it really is end of the road for anyone training in that Industry right now. Anyway I digress slightly, Airlines is a whole topic on its own.

I've been trying to get back to my old career (IT project Manager) for a Month now with no Joy. I expect recruitment just is not on the minds of businesses right now, but with a huge predicted economy retraction I cannot exactly see there being any jobs for a long time after all of this. I have also applied for well over 30 non-professional jobs from Warehouses to supermarkets and go no where, I have about 10 different CV's dumbed down and tailored and I know how to do a good covering letter so I do not doubt the quality of my applications. It really is impossible to get any work right now. Icing on the cake, I spent 3 hours doing Alidi's online tests for a 'stock assistant' to find out this morning I did not even get an interview

Although I was a student for the last 18 months I am still registered as a limited company director (from when I was contracting) so I am literally in no mans land and getting fuck all support.

Anyhow, not a play a violin for S3TH thread, what are your thoughts on how this will impact the economy? is the worse case 1930's depression realistic or sensational reporting?

Also how do you think life may differ after all of this? permanent changes in behaviours? policies? laws?
3CorsaMeal
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17th Apr 20 at 20:44   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I'm thinking of pulling my money out the banks and keeping it under my mattress
SetH
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17th Apr 20 at 20:55   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by 3CorsaMeal
I'm thinking of pulling my money out the banks and keeping it under my mattress


Seriously though do you think there could be a run on the banks soon?

I mean Deutsche Bank has not been in a good state for a while, could be a tipping point for many.
Ian
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17th Apr 20 at 23:26   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Admittedly no inside knowledge, nowhere near the level of yours but I'm a bit more positive about aviation, I can't see demand falling away completely. I fully intend to get back on as many planes as possible when this is over, if anything it should make you more willing to get out and see the world.

Probably lots of people reevaluating their lives and cutting out the bullshit and doing more with their lives. That's got to favour aviation surely.

Suppose it depends from those unemployment figures how many are "properly" unemployed in terms of opportunities and how many will find something.

You might argue there are a few growth areas - most notably domestic production so all countries, not just the UK, are far less exposed to overseas supply issues as they have found here.

Need to check my source but I think the US (and all others I guess) audited their pharma inventories and found there were around 150 I think life-saving drugs which they couldn't source domestically. So if the US lost the ability but either through supply issue or the source country refusing to supply then Americans would die as a direct result. Can't see that carrying on.

I would think science generally will get more money.

I think home delivery has been further strengthened although that's a bit gig to take it too seriously. And difficult to know whether all these extra staff taken on to satisfy demand will be incorporated in to the post-covid picture.

Ian
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17th Apr 20 at 23:33   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Also you know my thoughts on the grant/bailout situation for individuals as per the other thread. There are definitely winners from this situation who will have a fairly nice combination of a cash injection and a depressed market in which to spend it. So somewhat more of a power-shift than merely everyone being skint.

There is also the issue that outward investment will fill the gaps, I've been watching a ton of stuff about how China is going to sneak in and buy everything which I don't doubt. Be interesting to see whether world politics and economics collide if there is enough public appetite for isolationist policies or whether we openly accept money from wherever it comes and under whatever terms in the name of domestic recovery.
SetH
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18th Apr 20 at 11:36   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Admittedly no inside knowledge, nowhere near the level of yours but I'm a bit more positive about aviation, I can't see demand falling away completely.


You are correct demand will not fall away completely. However even the slightest fall has a huge impact. The Airline Industry moves in cycles, we had a bust post 9/11 it took 4/5 years before Airlines hired again. We had the same in 2009, we then went into a boom in 2014 and we were seeing pilot shortages. The bubble was primed to burst early this year, the demise of flybe and Thomas Cook dumped 1000's of pilots onto the market. Covid-19 absolutely kicked it off a cliff, think the Persian going down the well SPARTA style in the film 300, it could not have been more bad. This is not taking into consideration the 737-MAX issue with 1000's of planes grounded, orders on hold/cancelled. You literally could not ask for a more perfect storm.

Low oil prices will help the Airlines. The pressure on Aviation caused by all this Greta Thunberg bollocks will not. The ever increasing demand for cheap skate customers wanting dirt cheap fares means most airlines operate on very tight margins. We will see many Airlines go bankrupt, we will see big mergers (similar to Air France / KLM).

My Chief flying Instructor is a retired Captain with 40 years experience. He told me he lived through 3 major recessions and each time he lost his flying job and had to back to his previous career. When Flybe and Thomas Cook went bust he frankly advised me to consider delaying my flight training or spreading it out as he knew recruitment was already dying. He said this before covid-19.

My changes of becoming a commercial pilot now are Zero. Any young kids in their early 20's they should go and get a degree or learn a trade and look again at the situation in 5 years, they have time on their side.

Aviation will change forever, or myself and the 1000's in the community are epically wrong.


[Edited on 18-04-2020 by SetH]
SetH
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18th Apr 20 at 12:45   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

68% of the UK support the lockdown

54% do not agree that too much fuss is being made about Covid-19

Survey data as at 16th April 2020.


I found this comment very interesting :

Firstly, it makes people feel safe in this outrageously dangerous narrative we have constructed. However, I ask, are we just storing up trouble for later in the year? Known Covid-19 cases in Derby, for example, sit at 0.13% of the total population – in Bristol 0.066%. Whole cities in lockdown – preventing immunity from building and threatening devastating winter outbreaks. Is this logical, on any count? Economic catastrophe aside…

Secondly, employee surveys over the last decade have shown a sharp fall in employee satisfaction and engagement. Less than a third of us actually like our jobs. So why go back to an unsatisfactory job when you can bake cookies with the kids and still enjoy 80% of your salary? Going back to the previous life, why it’s like turkeys voting for Christmas… Eat your heart out employers who have systematically destroyed morale. Your people would rather be funded by the government – from Rishi Sunak’s Magic Money Forest, naturally.
Ian
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18th Apr 20 at 15:30   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I'm in denial about airlines, I still want cheap holidays sounds like those days are gone

You are coming from the angle of pilot demand though, understandable if you have invested in that route. Also a big shame because you can't exactly cash out half way. Hopefully you will still make use at some point in the distant future.

My thoughts are more focused on demand. Although from what you have said there price may see to that.

Ian
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18th Apr 20 at 15:38   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
I ask, are we just storing up trouble for later in the year? Known Covid-19 cases in Derby, for example, sit at 0.13% of the total population – in Bristol 0.066%. Whole cities in lockdown – preventing immunity from building and threatening devastating winter outbreaks. Is this logical, on any count?


Yes, not logical at all.

Its happening in Majorca as well. I'm on the ex-pat / holiday home group on Facebook and there's LOADS of discontent there. Really severe army-enforced lockdown and they can't even exercise. And yet infections on the island are very low compared to mainland Spain. In fact I would venture to suggest that all cases are now contained and the transmissibility looks close to zero. So they've essentially eradicated it in their population but in doing so built very little immunity. And they're all about opening back up like its nothing. Which will be sound right until the first infected arrive at which time it will be a shit show.

When you consider how much of the economy is based on letting people back in you can see how there is incentive to get that going again but from an immunity point of view that cannot end well.

[Edited on 18-04-2020 by Ian]
SetH
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18th Apr 20 at 15:40   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by Ian
I'm in denial about airlines, I still want cheap holidays sounds like those days are gone

You are coming from the angle of pilot demand though, understandable if you have invested in that route. Also a big shame because you can't exactly cash out half way. Hopefully you will still make use at some point in the distant future.

My thoughts are more focused on demand. Although from what you have said there price may see to that.




Ryan air are talking about price wars when this is over, I am not sure exactly what they mean by that but might be good for the consumer. However if social distance is to be followed on aircraft you will see lots of empty jets which is not profitable for the Airlines. Easyjet were talking about leaving the middle seat empty on each side. EZY are big on filling each Aircraft for a reason, also believe it or not the extra things you have to pay for and onboard meals/drinks are absolutely critical in profit margin.

I am indeed coming at it from a pilot demand viewpoint. There are lots of discussions on the commercials on the Aviation forums I frequent, but I am not overly interested in them, too much speculation. The pilot demand picture is much clearer and using the historical data from previous recessions for this factor alone is reasonable.

Will low cost carriers and cheap flights survive? I am not so sure. Do the public share your sentiment for wanting to get back to travelling? well to that I say look at the publics reaction to covid-19, Hysteria and Fear like it was the black death are these same easily influenced and frightened people going to want to travel in the near future?

I have been doing quite a bit of travelling over the last 6 years, and keen to get back to it, this virus will not stop me (well I need to recover some form of Career and income first!).
Ian
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18th Apr 20 at 16:01   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
So why go back to an unsatisfactory job when you can bake cookies with the kids and still enjoy 80% of your salary


Yes, quite. You can see why it suits some people. I've had the premises grant, missus still full pay WFH, I'm due the 80% self employed thing based on the tax return, absolutely no reason to want to work for money right now.

I do need to not neglect the business though, eBay shop is most of the sales so if those listings finish its a pain in the cock to create everything again. Plus before you can sell anything it all needs taking off, cataloguing etc. so there's a delay before you make money. So if you let it lapse its more work to pick it back up. So I'm not treated it just like a jolly. But I can see if the state of the business didn't worry me I'd be sitting at home taking the free money.
Ian
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18th Apr 20 at 16:09   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Easyjet were talking about leaving the middle seat empty on each side.


So 120 people paying for 180 seats, there is your first price hike.

As you say, assuming there is demand.

Also not sure how you are distancing from an aisle seat, surely A or F goes for a piss you're going to pass them in the aisle if not in the row. Just not practical to distance at all.

Then you have the issue of air circulation, there was always noises about stale air, I don't have the stories in memory but I think there were some cabin crew died of respiratory issues which were attributed to air quality inside. Although I think the airlines and manufacturers have fought this quite proactively as it would not be good news to admit that their aircraft make you ill.

But once you have pressurised then whatever aerosol you trapped is in there right? Won't really matter where you sit.


[Edited on 18-04-2020 by Ian]
SetH
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18th Apr 20 at 16:13   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Based on my knowledge of Aircraft Systems it is not possible to fully protected in the cabin unless you are in full hazmat with your own oxygen supply. I cannot see how they will pull it off and any measures they do implement will just be token measures ie: seen to be doing 'something'.
Ian
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18th Apr 20 at 16:17   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Based on my knowledge of Aircraft Systems it is not possible to fully protected in the cabin unless you are in full hazmat with your own oxygen supply. I cannot see how they will pull it off and any measures they do implement will just be token measures ie: seen to be doing 'something'.


Yes that would be my understanding. Although I was talking "afterwards" ie. when the medical issues are out the way and we're only talking the customers' abilities to spend money and the airlines' abilities to meet demand.
Ian
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18th Apr 20 at 16:34   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com/news/local/2020/04/17/65675/son-llatzer-closed-due-lack-coronavirus-patients.html

Sewing yet more discontent. I dread the day that airport reopens.
SetH
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20th Apr 20 at 19:52   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Uhm Oil price today

The dominoes have been flicked.
gavin18787
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20th Apr 20 at 21:12   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

It all does seem a bit doom and gloom especially watching the news this evening.

Only positives with the travel industry is as Ian says myself and others will be wanting to get back to traveling and holidays as soon as it is safe to do so. Plus all us key workers that are lucky enough to be in a stable position have had less out goings ie no social life and have been smashing the over time.
Holiday fund is looking good

SetH
With the flight training is that something that is self funded or is it sponsored by a company? Gutted to hear your journey down this pathway has been halted twice now by economic down turn.

Cant see social distancing been of any use in a pressurized tube. All it will do is lower the profit margins for a flight which helps no one. Lost count of the amount of times I come off of a flight with someone else's germs.



Also Germany:
> good stats
> starting to reopen

Unless it turns out they are jumping the gun they seem to be doing something right


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Ian
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20th Apr 20 at 21:13   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
Uhm Oil price today


Without knowing the specific reason this is going to ruin the world, that is actually quite funny.

[Edited on 20-04-2020 by Ian]
SetH
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quote:
Originally posted by gavin18787
SetH
With the flight training is that something that is self funded or is it sponsored by a company? Gutted to hear your journey down this pathway has been halted twice now by economic down turn.



You literally pay for everything in Aviation now and I mean everything. sponsored cadet schemes are a thing of the distant past, many even do a 'pay to fly' scheme which is disgusting and legislation is changing by end of the day you want to be a pilot you have to pay BIG.

I was on an Easyjet MPL Scheme, highly competitive only 2% of cadets are selected and after a 5 stage interview/skills test process over 3 months I landed a place. The price of such a course is £109,000 but with the MPL is a guaranteed job, guaranteed of course unless the world sees a black swan event. There are other routes, if you do the licences/ratings in steps you could do it for £60,000 - 80,000 but then you are on your own in an ultra competitive job market. The big schools do 'integrated' which is around £130,000 you don't get a job at the end with an airline like MPL but you do go into the schools holding pool and they place people with airlines (if you are lucky).

My EZY class was paired with an Air France group that were being sponsored by Air France, this is ultra rare these days and the only scheme I have seen. Before they started flight training they had to complete 2 years at a prep school at France as a pre-requisite.

Now that there will be (actually let me correct, NOW THAT THERE IS) an over supply of pilots it will favour the Airlines. People will have to pay for their school as normal and then probably have to add a type rating on top of that afterwards (another 20k).

Average salary as a starting first officer anything from 18k to 40k but you have 109,000 - 150,000 of debt.

It's not done for the money and kids without rich parents have no chance of getting a foot in their door, there is no help anywhere. They even stopped the Pilot training loans which were secured agaisnt a property.
SetH
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21st Apr 20 at 10:08   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

When I started one friend assumed EZY were paying for everything. Another friend asked me if I get paid by EZY from day one of training
Ian
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21st Apr 20 at 16:49   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

People are used to education being free.

Does show how volatile it is, pilot shortages do not seem such a distance memory.
gavin18787
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21st Apr 20 at 19:31   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
quote:
Originally posted by gavin18787
SetH
With the flight training is that something that is self funded or is it sponsored by a company? Gutted to hear your journey down this pathway has been halted twice now by economic down turn.



You literally pay for everything in Aviation now and I mean everything. sponsored cadet schemes are a thing of the distant past, many even do a 'pay to fly' scheme which is disgusting and legislation is changing by end of the day you want to be a pilot you have to pay BIG.

I was on an Easyjet MPL Scheme, highly competitive only 2% of cadets are selected and after a 5 stage interview/skills test process over 3 months I landed a place. The price of such a course is £109,000 but with the MPL is a guaranteed job, guaranteed of course unless the world sees a black swan event. There are other routes, if you do the licences/ratings in steps you could do it for £60,000 - 80,000 but then you are on your own in an ultra competitive job market. The big schools do 'integrated' which is around £130,000 you don't get a job at the end with an airline like MPL but you do go into the schools holding pool and they place people with airlines (if you are lucky).

My EZY class was paired with an Air France group that were being sponsored by Air France, this is ultra rare these days and the only scheme I have seen. Before they started flight training they had to complete 2 years at a prep school at France as a pre-requisite.

Now that there will be (actually let me correct, NOW THAT THERE IS) an over supply of pilots it will favour the Airlines. People will have to pay for their school as normal and then probably have to add a type rating on top of that afterwards (another 20k).

Average salary as a starting first officer anything from 18k to 40k but you have 109,000 - 150,000 of debt.

It's not done for the money and kids without rich parents have no chance of getting a foot in their door, there is no help anywhere. They even stopped the Pilot training loans which were secured agaisnt a property.



Blimey that is quite eye opening. My only knowledge was from watching a program on TV about people learning to fly. Think that may have been easy jet. Funnily enough the cost wasnt mentioned anywhere and the students did seem quite well heeled


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SetH
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21st Apr 20 at 19:42   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

The last series of Easyjet Stephen fry did mention it cost £109,000 as I face palmed at the TV. I had kept the costs close to my chest, I'm a bit strange like that when it comes to finances.

The series was pretty awful, despised by many pilots. They exaggerated and sensationalised a lot, made out the 2 female pilots to be incompetent when they were taxing at Schipol. but I digress from this thread! suffice to say it was not well received. I was bloody lucky to get on that MPL course, although my preparation was meticulous, I am equally unlucky to have picked the worse time in the history of aviation.

Just trying to get back to the day job now although many are underestimating the potential disaster on the horizon. Amazing how many think a V shaped bounce, printing trillions of dollars out of thin air will not end well.
gavin18787
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21st Apr 20 at 20:15   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Yer all TV documentaries that portray your profession are always cringe worthy to the people within the industry. Suppose they have to make them entertaining for joe public


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