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Author Covid-19 - The Impact to the economy and our way of life
SetH
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Registered: 15th Jul 01
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24th Apr 20 at 18:28   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I am keeping an eye on the markets right now, I still think we are seeing a dead cat bounce but this insane printing magic money out of thin air is unprecedented so god knows what is going to happen.

After its death spiral bitcoin is doing pretty well, remains to see wether it will decouple from FOREX stocks or perhaps go down with the ship if we see the crash.

It's so bizarre to see headlines of 26 Million Americans unemployed whilst stocks continue to pump

I've been unable to secure an interview, have applied for a few IT contracts which made a point of saying they were doing remote interviews. Also applied for quite a few local min wage jobs just to keep me occupied and some income but no joy. I expect we could be in a situation of 100's or 1000's of applicants for the few jobs (other than care jobs) that are around.

The amount of hospitality and retail workers than stand to be dumped on the market is frightening.
gavin18787
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24th Apr 20 at 21:20   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

It's going to become even more tricky for sure. At first it seemed that there would be loads of jobs in supermarkets and deliveries etc. However as restrictions ease slightly and people arnt panicking to buy things the need has stabilised.
And as you say it's whole groups/industries out of work and fighting for the same roles

[Edited on 24-04-2020 by gavin18787]


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SetH
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27th Apr 20 at 14:06   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I've literally giving up job hunting now, its a complete waste of time until we get through this mess. The Bank of Japan has started unlimited QE Fed style today, perhaps all this crazy money printing will keep the economy propped long enough until it re-opens world wide. I still feel it is kicking the can down the road though, 11 years of bull market... It can't go up forever.

Looking at retraining, the pilot things truly is dead for the next few years so I think it's back to IT for me. Had enough of being a Project Manager and want to go back to techy, looking at getting MS Azure Dev Ops engineer certified. Training would be virtual classroom at the moment but better than sitting around waiting for lockdown to end.

What is everyone else up to work wise? furloughed? anyone at threat of redundancy?
RichR
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27th Apr 20 at 19:43   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I’m fortunately, ridiculously busy. My wife is an area manager for Aldi, she was on mat. leave and not due back until September but has gone back early to help out. The company I’m with is seeing around 35% year on year growth, whilst we’ve lost university and some business customers, we have picked up hundreds, if not thousands of smaller, private customers. Example being that traditionally we’d take around 200 orders over the course of a weekend, we’re currently running at 700. We’re actually now struggling to keep on top of it all but just managing; not sure we can cope with much more. I’m currently working from my dining table though but with VOIP and full cloud based ERP, I’m probably actually more productive than if I was in the office.

[Edited on 27-04-2020 by RichR]
Kyle T
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28th Apr 20 at 09:28   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Pretty busy here too, my business has always been WFH based so operationally we haven't changed much. Some of the technology we sell/implement allows for remote working for businesses so it's obviously seen a boom in demand.

We do expect to go quiet soon though, all projects have been halted other than those that allow a business to keep the wheels churning.

Seth we do a lot of work with Azure so gimme a shout if you have any specific queries, less so on the development side and more on the infrastructure side - but still can help navigate round the certification structure etc if needed.


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SetH
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28th Apr 20 at 11:29   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by Kyle TSeth we do a lot of work with Azure so gimme a shout if you have any specific queries, less so on the development side and more on the infrastructure side - but still can help navigate round the certification structure etc if needed.


Thank you mate I appreciate that, I have a bit of a dilemma with wether to follow the INF or DEV route right now.

I had 10 years as a Wintel support engineer, so all Infrastructure background. The last 10 Years as an IT PM, mostly Infrastructure projects as opposed to DEV Work.

If I am unable to break into a full fat role as an azure engineer be it DEV or INF my fallback is that the Azure certification will add another string to my bow as a Project Manager. Effectively I could market myself as an Azure certified PM and ride the waves of Azure migrations over the coming years. If I were to that then the DEV route would make more sense? as during an azure migration project my project team would be mostly Dev's and at project closure we would be handing over to infrastructure teams.

Thoughts? PM if you like, cheers
gavin18787
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28th Apr 20 at 12:09   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Both busy here. Pharmacy within the NHS so busy myself and other half is a solicitor and still busy as apparently the criminals are not working from home

Only downer is that she is working from home doing conference calls with clients. So if I am at home I am generally getting shouted at for been in the way


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Kyle T
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29th Apr 20 at 12:41   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
quote:
Originally posted by Kyle TSeth we do a lot of work with Azure so gimme a shout if you have any specific queries, less so on the development side and more on the infrastructure side - but still can help navigate round the certification structure etc if needed.


Thank you mate I appreciate that, I have a bit of a dilemma with wether to follow the INF or DEV route right now.

I had 10 years as a Wintel support engineer, so all Infrastructure background. The last 10 Years as an IT PM, mostly Infrastructure projects as opposed to DEV Work.

If I am unable to break into a full fat role as an azure engineer be it DEV or INF my fallback is that the Azure certification will add another string to my bow as a Project Manager. Effectively I could market myself as an Azure certified PM and ride the waves of Azure migrations over the coming years. If I were to that then the DEV route would make more sense? as during an azure migration project my project team would be mostly Dev's and at project closure we would be handing over to infrastructure teams.

Thoughts? PM if you like, cheers


It's a tough one, seems like we've had similar IT backgrounds I transitioned more from a networking and compute side rather than development and SQL. Sometimes it feels like the Azure platform is doing its best to squeeze people with our skills out of the equation. MS often seem to live in a dream world where a Dev can just be lobbed the keys to an Azure subscription and be expected to spin up whatever he needs without involving a SQL or infrastructure bod. Luckily security and compliance gets in the way of that dreamworld!

Being able to market yourself as an Azure PM with some architectural capabilities would be very valuable I'd have thought. It's less about keeping up with the technologies (it's my full time job and I can barely keep up sometimes) and more about understanding the concepts and how they differ from legacy on-premises concepts.

Most of the work we take on is getting an organisation "cloud ready" in the first instance, so extending domains, networking and security and then helping the customer organisation establish a governance framework - usually in the form of some kind of managed service. Their devs and application teams request their interpretation of what they think they need, and we either advise otherwise or implement it depending on how close they got to the right solution - sort of a middle ground between solutions architecture, technical architecture, security/compliance and infrastructure support.


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SetH
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4th May 20 at 20:17   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Mother of god, the full force of this is hitting the airlines now, absolute decimation.. look at the stock prices. Warren buffet sold ALL his airline stock holdings.

Stay at home really will not age well. screenshot this and check back with me in 6 months. The public are so flippant about the economy, most thinking they won't be affected. We won't be able to money print our way out of this.

All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>
DaveyLC
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6th May 20 at 10:15   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH

All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>


That is far from true though.. Influenza has a much shorter incubation period, is far less contagious (especially before symptoms show) and has a significantly lower mortality rate.

Covid-19 is almost unique in how it is so contagious long before symptoms show and even more so that many people are asymptomatic so they are super-spreaders.
SetH
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6th May 20 at 10:54   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by DaveyLC
quote:
Originally posted by SetH

All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>


That is far from true though.. Influenza has a much shorter incubation period, is far less contagious (especially before symptoms show) and has a significantly lower mortality rate.

Covid-19 is almost unique in how it is so contagious long before symptoms show and even more so that many people are asymptomatic so they are super-spreaders.


I was not talking abut the incubation period or how contagious it was, I am aware of both of those factors.

As for the lethality rate, well it depends what data set you are looking at and which Scientists you choose to listen to. I hope you are not using Neil Fergusons
DaveyLC
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6th May 20 at 12:22   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
quote:
Originally posted by DaveyLC
quote:
Originally posted by SetH

All for something with the lethality rate of a bad seasonal influenza. or insert your favourite conspiracy <here>


That is far from true though.. Influenza has a much shorter incubation period, is far less contagious (especially before symptoms show) and has a significantly lower mortality rate.

Covid-19 is almost unique in how it is so contagious long before symptoms show and even more so that many people are asymptomatic so they are super-spreaders.


I was not talking abut the incubation period or how contagious it was, I am aware of both of those factors.




But these are important factors that completely change how the virus can propagate, viruses cannot move nor can they multiply they rely on host cells and shedding.. Clearly if the virus cells are being shed before symptoms are displayed people move around more and infect exponentially more people.
SetH
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6th May 20 at 17:39   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I don't disagree with those points. I was stating that the lethality is no worse than a bad seasonal influenza. Note my use of the word 'bad' as particularly I was referring to the more severe influenza outbreaks over the last few decades. we have had some mild influenza seasons where there have only been 4000 or so deaths.

8 weeks on we have so much data and here is just a selection of leading experts stating that its comparable to influenza. I've looked at the data, I am not going to waste time replicating it here but I stand by my original statement in the light of not seeing any evidence that suggests otherwise.

I think there is still so much cognitive dissonance amongst people still, like they want to feed of the hysteria or have become dependent on it. One guy that has been messaging me on Instagram is almost like Heath Ledgers joker, it's like he wants neil fergusons model to have been the reality.

Stanford professor John Ioannidis explains in an interview with CNN that Covid19 is a „widespread and mild disease“ comparable to influenza (flu) for the general population, while patients in nursing homes and hospitals should receive extra protection.

The Swiss chief physician for infectiology, Dr. Pietro Vernazza, explains in a new interview that the Covid19 disease is „mild for the vast majority of people“. The „counting of infected people and the call for more tests“ would not help much. In addition, most of the people listed in the corona statistics would not die solely from Covid-19. The lethality rate of Covid-19 is „in the order of magnitude of a seasonal flu“.

German virologist Hendrik Streeck explains the final results of his pioneering antibody study. Streeck found a Covid19 lethality of 0.36%, but explains in the interview that this is an upper limit and the lethality is probably in the range of 0.24 to 0.26% or even below

Epidemiologist Dr Knut Wittkowski explains in a new interview that the danger of Covid19 is comparable to an influenza and that the peak was already passed in most countries before the lockdown. The lockdown of entire societies was a „catastrophic decision“ without benefits but causing enormous damage. The most important measure is the protection of nursing homes. Bill Gates‘ statements on Covid19 are „absurd“ and „have nothing to do with reality“, a vaccination against Covid19 is not necessary. The influential Covid19 model of the British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was a „complete failure“.
SetH
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6th May 20 at 17:43   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

Forgot about this.

Here is the data from 47 studies all over the world.

You are welcome

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABcg8gUPA*ueSky9g9dRRZ12nz6gNzug#
Cybermonkey
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7th May 20 at 01:14   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

That fatality rate above Seth is completely wrong. Looking at raw numbers alone for New York, the death rate is 0.8%, or ~1 death per 150 infections. That is far worse than the worst flu season.

The rate in people aged over 80 is a staggering 15%. It is extremely lethal to older folk. To say it is no worse than seasonal flu is completely wrong
DaveyLC
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7th May 20 at 07:27   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by SetH
I don't disagree with those points. I was stating that the lethality is no worse than a bad seasonal influenza. Note my use of the word 'bad' as particularly I was referring to the more severe influenza outbreaks over the last few decades. we have had some mild influenza seasons where there have only been 4000 or so deaths.



Its overall "Lethality" is directly proportional to how rapidly/easily a virus can spread.. That's like saying a 9mm semi-automatic pistol is no more dangerous than an Uzi.. Yes in both instances the "bullet" has a vaguely similar chance of killing you but the Uzi is going to fire far more bullets in far more random directions.

Look at HIV for example even with modern treatments the mortality rate is still high but I'd have no problem being in a room FULL of HIV patients as I know its a very very very low level contagion, but I wouldn't fancy my chances in a room full of even asymptomatic covid-19 sufferers, shedding their virus all over the place without even knowing about it.
evilrob
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7th May 20 at 09:57   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by DaveyLC
I'd have no problem being in a room FULL of HIV patients

I like going to gay bars too. x
Ian
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7th May 20 at 14:57   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I tend to subscribe to Davey's angle - that you can't disassociate the propagation from lethality.

Look at Ebola, didn't arrive in the UK because no one lasted that long to get it here. That's less lethal on paper but fuck being in that room.
Ian
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10th May 20 at 19:11   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

So that was nice and clear.

I still maintain they are after herd immunity but can't say it.

Also pissing me off the number on people on Facebook who are complaining that its vague. The same people who would call him a Tory murderer if he came out and said it.
DaveyLC
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11th May 20 at 07:49   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

I honestly believe there was a deliberate campaign to spread the idea of lockdown being "relaxed" so the government could give an agile response on sunday that reflected public feeling without actually committing to extending it or relaxing it.

The new "slogan" is clearly flexible enough to cover both outcomes.
Fonz
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11th May 20 at 08:36   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

quote:
Originally posted by Ian
Also pissing me off the number on people on Facebook who are complaining that its vague.



Snap - within minutes it was over my news feed people asking what does it mean/can i now do X - as if FB has an answer clearer than Boris's own words - for those 20 minutes facebook was alive with experts!
Ian
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11th May 20 at 12:02   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

What I find remarkable is the selective congratulations.

Sweden employed minor changes to some aspects of life - congratulated for being so liberal.

UK attempted to ask for common sense and was berated for acting slowly.

Germany locked down quickly and in doing so have very low spread which is why they now have a second wave. Congratulated for acting fast.

Spain put military on the streets, congratulated for being decisive.

UK took some time to lock down but eventually put one in place, criticised for removing human rights and damaging mental health.

It seems every angle has supporters and critics. Which is why it is no surprise at all to me that he can't do right for doing wrong. I also don't need to watch his address to the nation to know his plan.
whitter45
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28th May 20 at 15:43   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote

not read it all but salary of a low cost airline pilot is not great considerign the invetsment you make and also the repsonisbility you have 2 matetes who started with Ryanair

Ryanair also expect you to fly for free unitl you get a route allocated - i.e on standby
one stayed and is now locked in - cant get into the major airles

other flies Qatar but hates living in Doha

need to get into the bigger airlines but if you want to be a cpatian will take you up to 4times as long


[Edited on 28-05-2020 by whitter45]

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