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Author math gods.
Dan
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Registered: 22nd Apr 02
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17th Dec 07 at 17:20   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
can anyone tell me what the chance of this is please.

If you have a 1in3 chance and you do not hit it in 21 consecutive goes. Whats the probablity of it happening?

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GTS-T Rob
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17th Dec 07 at 17:21   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
1 in 3 still
Kathryn W
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17th Dec 07 at 17:21   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
1 in 63?
GTS-T Rob
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17th Dec 07 at 17:22   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
bit like flipping a coin, its 1 in 2 chance, just because you have flipped it heads 21 times, dont mean its going to have more of a chance landing on tails?
IvIarkgraham
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17th Dec 07 at 17:22   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
1 in 3 as you could start hitting it regularly after 21 goes
ShEp
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17th Dec 07 at 17:23   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
starts at 1 in 3 for each turn

so it never changes
Hammer
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17th Dec 07 at 17:24   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
He said math gods not random guesses
deano87
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17th Dec 07 at 17:25   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
1 in something odds is bullshit tbh.

Most scratchcards are 1 in 4.6 chance of winning. I know someone that bought 5 scratchcards, 5 is more than 4.6, yeah?

Well, they didn't even win £1 back.
GTS-T Rob
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17th Dec 07 at 17:25   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
he had answered his own question though when he said its got a 1 in 3 chance
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 17:26   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
but surely there is a way of saying what the chance of it not being that number for x amount of goes?

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GTS-T Rob
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17th Dec 07 at 17:26   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by deano87
1 in something odds is bullshit tbh.

Most scratchcards are 1 in 4.6 chance of winning. I know someone that bought 5 scratchcards, 5 is more than 4.6, yeah?

Well, they didn't even win £1 back.



but then the next 5 cards could of had 2 winners in
Hammer
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17th Dec 07 at 17:28   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Dan
but surely there is a way of saying what the chance of it not being that number for x amount of goes?


Correct i'd surmise it would run into hundreds of thousands to 1 for that to happen.
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 17:29   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by deano87
1 in something odds is bullshit tbh.

Most scratchcards are 1 in 4.6 chance of winning. I know someone that bought 5 scratchcards, 5 is more than 4.6, yeah?

Well, they didn't even win £1 back.



Its a bit different when you have the number 1, 2, 3, you have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting 2.

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Lawrah
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17th Dec 07 at 17:29   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
36% 1 in 3 still
Hamish
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17th Dec 07 at 17:30   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by deano87
1 in something odds is bullshit tbh.

Most scratchcards are 1 in 4.6 chance of winning. I know someone that bought 5 scratchcards, 5 is more than 4.6, yeah?

Well, they didn't even win £1 back.

do you even have a vague idea of how proberbility works

How can it be bullshit, its all mathmatically worked out you numpty
Hammer
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17th Dec 07 at 17:31   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
31381059609 to 1
deano87
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17th Dec 07 at 17:31   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Hamish
do you even have a vague idea of how proberbility works

How can it be bullshit, its all mathmatically worked out you numpty

Then the National Lottery lie. Surely, no matter what 5 cards you get, one should win, if the probability of winning is 1 in 4.6?
Lawrah
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17th Dec 07 at 17:32   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 17:33   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
is that a serious answer or some random? How do you work it out if its for real? Cheers

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Russ
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17th Dec 07 at 17:33   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
i think dan means, whats the chance of not getting it 21 times.. i may be wrong though
Hammer
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17th Dec 07 at 17:34   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by deano87
quote:
Originally posted by Hamish
do you even have a vague idea of how proberbility works

How can it be bullshit, its all mathmatically worked out you numpty

Then the National Lottery lie. Surely, no matter what 5 cards you get, one should win, if the probability of winning is 1 in 4.6?


Hamish
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17th Dec 07 at 17:34   View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by deano87
quote:
Originally posted by Hamish
do you even have a vague idea of how proberbility works

How can it be bullshit, its all mathmatically worked out you numpty

Then the National Lottery lie. Surely, no matter what 5 cards you get, one should win, if the probability of winning is 1 in 4.6?

the probability changes with the number of variables. Not everything has a mathmatical probability of 4.6 you idiot
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 17:35   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Russ
i think dan means, whats the chance of not getting it 21 times.. i may be wrong though


Yea thats what i mean.

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IvIarkgraham
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17th Dec 07 at 17:37   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
depends how many other numbers there is
Dan
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17th Dec 07 at 17:40   View Garage View User's Profile U2U Member Reply With Quote
well there's 2 other number's.

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