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[quote][i]Originally posted by Ian[/i] 2:38 Northern Italy is the China of Europe - wow 4:46 his stats indicate 10k infected, 60 critical, 30 dead but surely there is some latent mortality there from that set? Those are the sorts of conclusions that you could only draw afterwards when ever case has run its full course. Or in the least some more time after it started. Even in the comorbid old people they are still living two weeks after onset of symptoms. You just can't compare case on day A and dead on day A and form your percentage from that, makes no sense. I'm very sceptical. Firstly that the Italian situation is only so bad because they have air pollution. The UK curve follows Italy almost exactly if you align the cases. Do we have air pollution too? What does he think will happen to our curve? Do Spain and Iran have air pollution? Also take a watch of this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NV72c3l_0jo One infected resident of a care home infected the other hundred residents and killed 30 of them. Are we to suggest that those 30 deaths would have happened anyway because the old people were all about due and had other factors? I've never known 50% of an entire care home needing hospital and one infection killing a quarter of the residents. Surely they'd be all over the news and shut down? The CQC would be aware I'm sure - or does it shock them because its absolutely unprecedented? TLDR - his stats are questionable, his demographics he doesn't validate in any way - nor am I aware of any truth in it. Still not convinced. [Edited on 01-04-2020 by Ian] [/quote]
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